Comments on: The sovereign myth Free Markets and Social Justice Fri, 19 Jan 2018 19:02:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: CJColucci Fri, 23 Jun 2017 20:27:00 +0000 I don’t avoid Jews, Muslims, or Libertarians, but I haven’t married any either. Still, there were damn few Muslims in my dating pool back when I was dating, so the likelihood that I might have married one was pretty slim. Doesn’t seem to me that my not marrying a Muslim — or a lot of non-Muslim people not marrying Muslims — proves much about whether I, or they, avoid them, or why..
Sobran isn’t around anymore to explain whatever point he was making, though the KKK reference is highly suggestive. I remember him being a rhetorical loose cannon, so If he didn’t mean what that suggests, that’s something his literary executor can address.

By: Sean II Fri, 23 Jun 2017 17:41:00 +0000 Interesting switch you’ve pulled:

6/20 – Whites don’t avoid blacks. You need to get out more. Why I know several examples…

6/23 – Okay yeah whites really do avoid blacks, but I swear it’s just for socio-economic reasons.

Unfortunately that’s non-responsive. The argument you started doesn’t hinge on why whites avoid blacks, just whether or not they do. Neither my comments nor Sobran’s quip depends on white people having an exclusively racial motive for their segregation from blacks.

By: Sean II Fri, 23 Jun 2017 17:06:00 +0000 I see two factors, although there may well be more.

1) BARRIERS TO INITIAL ATTRACTION – Looks like some of this is just plain physical. The safest bet in evolutionary bio is: like usually means like. We like who we’re like. That other saying – “opposites attract” – is probably just another example of salience bias. For the most part people are drawn to those who fundamentally resemble themselves.

That said, there are some emerging exceptions, as the dating apps show. It’s interesting what happens when universal tastes collide with phenotypic diversity.

Women the world over seem to like assertive, stereotypically masculine men (social status being equal, or at least sufficient), but not every group produces such men at similar rates. Very few Asian or predominantly indigenous Mexican guys are gonna compete well in a society where Brad Pitt and Will Smith set the standard. Meanwhile men everywhere tend to favor submissiveness and youth, as signaled by its most reliable proxy: petiteness. So higher average weight and body size does not bode well for the vast majority of black women up against the likes of Emma Watson and Jada Pinkett.

Note: the further we move toward diversity, the more acute problems like this become. For most of history explicitly racist endogamy rules have stopped people from chasing their preferences, and kept them grazing on the family farm (sometimes literally).

Shiksappeal was held in check by Yentapower.

But not anymore, and the early results are in: black women and asian men will suffer sexual isolation that grows in proportion as integration becomes a reality. And no amount of aspirational casting on Aziz Ansari’s show is likely to change that.

2) BARRIERS TO RELATIONSHIP STABILITY – The other one is the most usual of usual suspects: divergent evolution, behaviorally significant trait variance, different people gonna differ, etc.

Think of what a delicate thing it is to keep the peace between husband and wife. Should we buy a Lexus now, or push the old Hyundai to 200k and feed our index fund instead? It’s movie night, should we check out the new Wes Anderson or go make sure Jason Stathan hasn’t forgotten how to drive a stick? And so on.

As likely as any two people are to differ on these matters, two people of different groups are more.

Consider a few traits where we have good data: intelligence and future orientation. In a culture where spouses are expected to interact on equal terms, it really helps if you and yours are not more than a standard deviation apart. Then you can at least share a vocabulary, agree on what kind of culture to consume, find the same stuff interesting. Plus bad shit happens when one party can’t even understand the argument their loved one is making in a fight. Every problem is aggravated, every solution made more expensive, etc.

Same goes for time preference. To the extent that married couples act as a firm, they need to agree on its goals. If one party is always in favor of “let’s get this taken care of today” while the other is forever responding “why, we’ve got tons of time”.

Again, as likely as two people are to differ, so much more are two people of different groups.

By: CJColucci Fri, 23 Jun 2017 17:02:00 +0000 I can imagine numbers that would clarify the issue. Maybe they exist, and, if so, I’d like to see them. My main point, though, is that the base rate of interracial marriage isn’t particularly relevant to what I thought was the point under discussion. Sobran’s wisecrack really amounts to little more than that if you get an elite higher education you will have more money and live like a person with more money, which, for a variety of well-understood reasons, means you’ll be living largely among white people. Just about anyone of any political persuasion will agree that this is so. And it will be true whether or not the educated elite, or some subclasses of it, think it a bug or a feature. Some like it that way, some don’t; some would be willing to do something about it if anyone knew what to do, others would not be.That’s a question for another time.
As far equating the mating habits of the educated elite with those of KKK members, that’s something else again, a suggestion that the white educated elite overwhelmingly date whites for the same reasons the KKKers do. Raw total numbers would be misleading because you have to look at the number and color of fish in the ponds where one can be expected to drop one’s line. I suspect that a good look at the numbers will show a far greater proportion of dark fish in the hillbilly pond, and the question is whether people are throwing back the dark fish or not hooking them in the first place, which the right kind of numbers might illuminate. Incidentally, I don’t have a view about the “right” number of interracial relationships and to the extent that the rising trend in such marriages is happy news it is so only to the extent that it shows either a decline in aversion to such relationships or a pleasant change in the population of the pond, though there are people who would be happy about neither

By: Rob Gressis Fri, 23 Jun 2017 03:31:00 +0000 I suspect that many people just look at people and make judgments about what they’re likely to do based on their salient characteristics. Young skinny white guy with raggedy clothes and black tear tattoo? Be careful. Middle-aged black guy in suit? Smooth sailing. Lee Jussim stereotype accuracy stuff. Is that what you were hinting at? (Don’t get me wrong; I think there’s more to it than that. But I’m not sure how much more.)

By: Sean II Fri, 23 Jun 2017 03:00:00 +0000 I read it that way too, but such a claim turn his predicament into an escape proof prison. Here’s why…

1) The observed rate among whites is ~3%. So, in order to tout THAT as any kind of happy news, he must to come up with a prior probability lower than 3%. He must say “based on factors X,Y, and Z, the base rate for interracial marriage between, say, whites and blacks should be just 1%. But in fact that pairing is triumphantly beating the odds at slightly less than 2%! Hooray!”

That’s laughable on its face, but it gets worse…

2) Because the only values you can plug into X,Y, and Z to get that result are other measures of segregation. Meaning, he must show that whites and blacks live so far apart that no one would reasonably expect them to meet and marry at a rate higher than 1%.

Which sounds an awful lot like my original point, or Sobran’s for that matter.

And that’s not all…

3) Because even if X,Y, or Z turns out to be social class, and even if social class turns out to be upstream of race (it isn’t), that would still be closer to my point than his.

Like I said: “interracial mating is more common among hillbillies than hipsters.”

4) Meanwhile, the method I used – census base to derive null expectation, then comparison with observed rates – is absolutely the standard starting point for social science inquiries of this kind.

The method he used – looking only at what is salient to him, in a sampling of his own narrow experience, which no one else can review or verify, and then defiantly insisting that experience is more descriptive of reality than a massive store of data gleaned from the national census – is something any responsible scholar would tell you not to do.

5) There are admittedly other ways to study and examine this issue, refine the numbers, deepen our understanding, etc. (although in no sane world is the Colucci Relationship Anecdote Processor one of those ways).

A good one is: look at dating/mating behavior within specific locales. We can hardly regard a black guy in Baltimore as eligible to a white girl in Seattle, so maybe we should zoom in a bit and find out what happens within cities.

As it happens, we have exactly this kind of data from matchmaking apps. And the results are so discomforting I marvel at the fact they were ever made public. They basically confirm every tired old cliche in the book.

White guys like asian and white girls. In fact every group of men except asians likes asian girls. Only black women as a group prefer black men. No group prefers black women or asian men. White men and black women strongly agree in not preferring each other. And so on.

Note of caution: the dating numbers are more optimistic than the marriage numbers, but that probably doesn’t mean much long term. Parsimony says that endogamy preference would probably increase with the level of commitment expected. So however much one sees in hook-ups, expect lots more in actual hitchings.

6) Your definition granted, you are right about racism not being a big factor in the motives and actions of white people. It isn’t.

That, too, is part of my original point. The racial segregation we see around us is persisting despite a massive, sustained, and at its roots sincere desire on the part of whites to reject racism. Those whites aren’t lying when they say racism is evil, nor when they wish for a world rid of it. They really seem to want that, and have built almost an entire new religion around the idea.

But they keep running up against things which prevent them from realizing the dream of diversity in practice.

They keep individually revealing preferences other than the ones they collectively state.

The white-black question continues to be treated as a forgotten man problem, where A feels very strongly about what B should be doing for C (where A = bourgey whites, B = prole whites, and C = blacks).

By: Rob Gressis Thu, 22 Jun 2017 23:38:00 +0000 Hi CJColucci,

You say to Sean II “Maybe you have better numbers, and, if so, I’d be eager to see them.”

I thought he gave you numbers. Is your claim that the numbers he gave you didn’t count because numbers can’t tell us what percentage of interracial marriages there would be if people didn’t care about skin color?

Also, is your theory to explain the data he did give the following: most white people aren’t racist, but rather that they just marry people on the basis of shared values, social class, education, and location? If so, that seems plausible to me; I don’t think many white people are racist, and I don’t think racist motives play much of a role in most white people’s behavior (though I admit I’m using an idiosyncratic definition of “racist” according to which you count as a racist if you harbor hostility, contempt, or dislike to a racial group).

By: Peter from Oz Thu, 22 Jun 2017 23:28:00 +0000 How interesting. No-one here would ever think of such a reunion because the universities don’t really solicit private donations.
I hear a lot about ”law school” in the US. Are such institutions separate from Unviversities? Do you have to do law as a post-graduate course?

By: CJColucci Thu, 22 Jun 2017 19:30:00 +0000 I have no interest in convincing you one way or the other about the sincerity of anti-racism among whites, but citing the current rate of inter-racial marriage (while ignoring the rising rate of interracial marriage among younger folk),is barely even relevant, let alone “sobering.” Marriage is not randomly distributed, either on racial or class or religious, or geographical grounds. Unless you have some defensible notion of what the “right” percentage of interracial marriage is, there is simply nothing with which to compare the actual percentage. What is reasonably clear, both from the statistics and evidence in the broader culture, is that it is sufficiently common and accepted that just about anyone who lives in an area with reasonable ethnic diversity knows and probably socializes with interracial couples. They largely, though, sadly, not entirely, go through life without getting grief for it. They are all over popular culture even when the interracial character of the couple is not a plot point — the director just liked the way the actor read for the part and the casting just fell out that way. No one would re-make Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner as anything but a comedy now.
Sobran’s joke — it probably struck people as funny in those days — suggested that the educated elite were unusually prone to avoiding interracial relationships, presumably for the same reasons as the KKK. It would take some pretty sophisticated number-crunching to compare the rate of interracial marriages among the educated elites against the pool of otherwise plausible marriage prospects — budding lawyers are likely to marry someone they met in law school or college, a disproportionately white group — but based on fairly extensive anecdotal experience (my law school class reunion being only a recent dataset), my guess would be that, properly measured, interracial marriages are more common than the racial makeup of the marriage pool would predict. Maybe you have better numbers, and, if so, I’d be eager to see them.

By: Sean II Thu, 22 Jun 2017 18:20:00 +0000 Read the thread. What I doubt is the sincerity of anti-racism among whites. Especially vis-a-via blacks. Looks like mostly talk to me, and the numbers bear that out.

We’ve considered two sobering sources – racial dot maps and interracial marriage stats. But there’s plenty more where that came from. I might also have mentioned the notorious hypocrisy of those progressive corporations who decorate their image with Black Lives Matter while keeping their cubicles and especially their c-suites empty of living blacks. Or I might’ve brought up education, and the odd bit of historical reenactment which leads each new generation of white parents to repeat the postwar pattern of “fly or buy”, that is, go suburban or go private…just at the moment when their kids might have started attending school with significant numbers of native born blacks.

None of these things are hard to see.