Comments on: Black Liberty Matters Free Markets and Social Justice Sat, 20 Jan 2018 13:15:00 +0000 hourly 1 By: Sean II Tue, 12 Dec 2017 20:52:00 +0000 Oh, okay got it. We agree.

By: Konrad_Lorenz Tue, 12 Dec 2017 20:22:00 +0000 Right. That’s exactly what I’m saying. _If_ they didn’t believe that almost all defendants are guilty, they would have the most soul-crushing job imaginable.

By: Sean II Tue, 12 Dec 2017 19:50:00 +0000 But they’re not losing. Most defendants are guilty. Of the few who aren’t, most are scumbags who the police thought “good for it” with plenty of reason.

Only a tiny few defendents are both specifically innocent and generally likeable.

That’s why defense attorneys don’t end up becoming suicide bombers.

By: Konrad_Lorenz Tue, 12 Dec 2017 19:42:00 +0000 I’m not saying that the defense attorney wouldn’t ever recommend a plea bargain for a client they believe is innocent. I’m saying that if they did this in practically every case over their whole career, they would not be able to cope with (effectively) losing every time. It’s like someone who can’t get a job. They don’t apply for 30 jobs a week for 30 years. Maybe they can do it for a month or a year. Very few can do it for 2 years. By 10 years I doubt there is even one person in all of history who did not give up. All I’m saying is you can’t spend your whole life losing and losing and losing without giving up.

By: Sean II Tue, 12 Dec 2017 18:05:00 +0000 Not true. The more you care about your innocent client, the more seriously you have to take the calculus of expected value.

If an innocent man is facing a 25% chance of conviction that would mean a 20 year sentence, you gladly take a lesser plea that gets him 3 years, with an parole eligibility after 18 months. Because 3 is smaller than 5.

Any lawyer who DIDN’T recommend that would be a negligent sheister, putting his own Atticus Finch fantasy ahead of your life.

By: Konrad_Lorenz Tue, 12 Dec 2017 16:38:00 +0000 OK, poor choice of word on my part. They have a defense attorney so they are “defended” in the legal sense. I will now instead say that the defense attorney negotiates a surrender so that they don’t resist (or entirely resist) the prosecution’s claims. The point is that if the defense actually believed the clients were innocent, it would be intolerable to surrender in such a huge super-majority of cases. There is no way any defense attorney could tolerate their daily life like that. I’m literally serious about the suicide.

By: Sean II Tue, 12 Dec 2017 15:11:00 +0000 Accepting a plea bargain is not remotely the same thing as being undefended.

By: Konrad_Lorenz Tue, 12 Dec 2017 14:20:00 +0000 Public defenders plead out an even higher proportion of cases than private defense attorneys. These lawyers cannot possibly believe that most of their clients are innocent. How could they live with recommending plea bargaining in 99% of cases, if they thought that they weren’t at least 98% guilty? (At 98% guilty, a full _half_ of the innocent are pleading guilty.)

By: Konrad_Lorenz Tue, 12 Dec 2017 14:18:00 +0000 Defense attorneys don’t believe that most of their clients are innocent. If they believed that, they would probably kill themselves. In literally over 9/10 cases, their clients plead guilty. They _don’t_ defend most of their clients. For _most_ of their clients they negotiate a plea bargain. And it’s not a small majority but a near-total supermajority.

By: Sean II Tue, 10 Oct 2017 05:43:00 +0000 “Personally, I suspect there is a positive feedback loop effect going on…”

Blows my mind how willing you are to keep improvising guesses on a subject about which real information is available.

Personally? You suspect?

You’re talking straight out of your hat again, on at least four points:

1) “I’ll note that black people tend to accumulate a criminal record for fairly petty offenses more rapidly than whites, due to disparate policing…”

Wrong. It’s easier to get away with petty offenses in a black neighborhood than a white one, because the overall saturation of crime is so high, and prevailing standards of order and safety are lower. That’s why, when you go to the hood, you see vandalism everywhere, and anything not locked down promptly gets stolen. In white suburbs, a stolen bicycle warrants a detective bureau deployment. In the inner city, cops won’t even respond to that call because they’re far too busy with violence.

In other words: the truth is the exact opposite of what you believe. The amount of crime you have to commit in a black neighborhood to draw the heat is much higher than in a white one. The tolerance for petty crime in a white area is much LOWER than it is in a crime ridden ghetto.

2) “Poor people commit more crime….”

Technically true, but wrong in the sense you mean it. For any given level of income, black crime is higher than white. The racial disparity in criminal participation PERSISTS after controlling for income.

3) “So you end up with incarceration rates for blacks that are exaggerated compared to their actual criminal participation rate”

No, the rate is NOT exaggerated. It’s close to a perfect match, and indeed it may be understated given the lower reporting rate in black communities.

4) “The fairly petty offenses then become an arrest record that can be used to justify harsher sentencing.”

No idea what you’re talking about. The urban judges who try black defendants are often shockingly lenient. Dockets are jammed, and cynicism piles up quick. You see things like: career criminals with 12 arrests and 5 convictions walking away on a suspended sentence for aggravated assault.

Pull that shit in a rural county, the prosector makes a career of your case and uses your mugshot in a campaign commercial.

Again, exact opposite of what you imagine.

You don’t know what you’re talking about.