Suppose there are two states, MoreJustia and LessJustia. Both MoreJustia and LessJustia are unjust states, but MoreJustia is significantly closer to being just and legitimate than LessJustia. Suppose for a long time that, in order to punish LessJustia’s evil king and to try to edge him out of power, MoreJustia had imposed economic sanctions on LessJustia. Suppose these sanctions killed hundreds of thousands of innocent LessJustian civilians.

Suppose you are a citizen of MoreJustia.

Suppose MoreJustia decides to invade LessJustia in order to remove LessJustia’s evil king from power. Suppose this invasion is unjust—given the facts, it rather clearly violates any sensible theory of just war, though many warmongers and nationalists in MoreJustia mistakenly and negligently believe the war is just.

Suppose many of the soldiers in MoreJustia joined the military genuinely hoping to protect their fellow citizens. Many of them oppose the invasion. Many of them support the invasion.

Now, on the morning the invasion begins, God appears to you. He tells you that if He does not intervene, the invasion will succeed. MoreJustia will remove the king of LessJustia from power. However, God says, in doing so, MoreJustian soldiers will themselves directly kill at least 11,500 innocent LessJustia civilians. (He tells you this is the minimum number: they may actually kill up to another 70,000.) He tells you that at least 100,000 innocent LessJustia civilians will die because of the invasion. He also tells you that for at least the first decade and half after the invasion, the innocent people of LessJustia will be worse off than they would have been had MoreJustia never invaded. He also tells you that for at least the first decade and a half after the invasion, the invasion will produce no clear benefit to MoreJustia or to any other country. He does not tell you what happens after that.

In light of this, He offers you a choice:

1. I, God, will stop the invasion, but I will do so by killing all of MoreJustia’s invasion force, as well as by killing the government leaders in MoreJustia who ordered the invasion. [UPDATE: God assures you that this will not cause MoreJustia to collapse.]
2. I, God, will allow the invasion to proceed, with the consequences specified above.

Now, it would certainly be better if God intervened in other ways. Both of these options seem horrific to me. But, for whatever reason, God hasn’t put any better options on the table. What should you choose?

From a moral point of view, neither 1 nor 2 is desirable. However, in light of what you know, isn’t 1 preferable to 2? In order to save the innocent civilians of LessJustia, wouldn’t it be better for God to kill MoreJustia’s unjust invasion force and MoreJustia’s leaders, rather than for God to allow MoreJustia to kill so many innocent people in LessJustia?