I have an op-ed at USA Today this morning (in print on Monday supposedly) addressing the predictions of doomsday that have been made every time marriage or gender roles change and how those predictions never really materialize:

As conservatives rightly make fun of all the failed predictions of economic and ecological collapse peddled by progressives since the 1960s, they forget their own failed predictions of social collapse every time the institution of marriage changed over the same period.

Rising female labor force participation rates, rising divorce rates, the pill, and the advent of no-fault divorce were also claimed to be the “end of marriage,” if not Western civilization itself. No doubt marriage has changed as result of those events, but in the wake of a historic Supreme Court decision that validates the desire of millions of Americans to enter the institution of marriage, it’s hard to say those events killed marriage, either secular or religious.

It’s true that the divorce rate has risen since the 1950s, but it leveled off in the 1980s and has slowly fallen over the past two decades as people have adjusted to changes in gender roles and marriage. Single parenthood continues to be a concern for the welfare of children, but it is often the result of misguided public policies that aren’t directly the result of changes in marriage itself. For example, the War on Drugs has imprisoned countless potential African-American husbands, and the tax code and structure of welfare payments have made marriage a bad economic deal for many, especially the poor.

Yet the institution of marriage is far more resilient than conservatives give it credit. When economic and social circumstances have changed, gender roles, marriage and family have been able to adapt their forms to better fulfill the new functions that social change has brought about. The wealth created by capitalism ended the family’s role as the site of production, and marriage responded by becoming increasingly about love. The improved economic status of women produced more divorces, but it also led to far more equal marriages.

Same-sex marriage will not be the end of marriage. If we are concerned about marriage, we should be more worried about other policies. For all the importance conservatives attach to marriage, their perception of its fragility is surprising. It has adapted successfully in the face of far bigger changes than more people being allowed to participate in its benefits.